* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 11/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 43 48 50 53 54 54 51 44 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 43 48 50 53 54 54 51 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 37 40 44 49 52 51 49 47 SHEAR (KTS) 45 46 42 38 36 28 22 19 26 36 52 53 41 SHEAR DIR 314 302 295 285 278 270 264 277 298 309 301 291 285 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.2 23.7 22.7 21.2 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.7 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 106 102 98 91 83 80 79 76 77 80 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 96 96 93 88 81 73 71 70 67 68 70 73 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.7 -57.3 -57.9 -57.1 -56.5 -57.4 -58.0 -57.6 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 51 53 59 63 62 55 48 49 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 15 14 14 12 12 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 179 182 151 140 113 99 117 124 101 89 51 67 86 200 MB DIV -3 39 37 8 10 14 16 6 -32 -36 -9 0 -7 LAND (KM) 2099 1943 1774 1684 1595 1586 1542 1616 1738 1818 1856 1813 1727 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.5 31.7 32.9 35.5 37.6 39.0 40.0 40.3 39.9 39.1 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 34.1 32.2 30.6 28.9 27.2 26.8 27.9 29.6 30.7 31.0 30.2 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 17 18 16 13 9 8 6 3 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 38. 39. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 19. 17. 11. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 8. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 16. 9. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 11/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 11/07/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY