* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 11/07/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 52 56 56 55 53 51 46 40 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 52 56 56 55 53 51 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 40 45 50 53 53 51 50 48 SHEAR (KTS) 42 37 37 31 25 18 16 27 40 40 43 40 34 SHEAR DIR 295 284 276 275 268 266 288 306 316 298 300 302 299 SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.9 21.4 20.7 20.7 20.8 21.2 22.1 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 99 96 92 84 80 80 79 82 88 93 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 89 86 82 74 71 71 69 72 78 82 83 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -57.2 -57.3 -57.9 -57.1 -55.9 -56.5 -56.6 -57.4 -57.2 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 49 50 55 60 60 60 52 47 45 47 48 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 13 11 10 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 165 147 117 103 91 122 151 132 112 100 90 82 81 200 MB DIV 29 12 1 24 14 16 9 -45 -14 -35 -6 -17 -5 LAND (KM) 1804 1701 1599 1579 1562 1564 1671 1839 1947 1962 1868 1607 1329 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.6 32.6 33.9 35.2 37.4 38.7 39.1 38.8 37.9 36.4 34.6 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 30.8 29.1 28.1 27.1 27.0 28.5 30.5 31.8 31.7 30.2 28.0 25.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 16 15 13 9 8 7 4 7 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 37. 37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 21. 21. 19. 17. 12. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 11. 5. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 11/07/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 11/07/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED