* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922007 11/08/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 41 47 50 52 52 53 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 41 47 50 52 52 53 52 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 31 35 41 46 48 49 49 49 49 SHEAR (KTS) 35 32 26 20 16 8 19 33 34 40 40 36 35 SHEAR DIR 280 268 258 250 248 267 326 323 307 301 283 279 267 SST (C) 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.7 21.9 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 94 91 86 81 80 79 79 81 85 89 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 84 81 76 72 71 69 69 71 74 77 81 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.7 -56.6 -57.0 -57.5 -57.0 -55.9 -56.8 -57.7 -59.0 -58.8 -58.8 -59.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 47 56 58 63 66 64 61 53 51 51 48 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 11 10 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 136 119 104 110 124 161 143 113 77 63 60 70 51 200 MB DIV 7 29 21 -4 19 13 -26 -24 -28 -9 -23 -11 -31 LAND (KM) 1719 1641 1577 1590 1555 1609 1764 1892 1941 1929 1886 1761 1585 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.2 34.3 35.5 36.7 38.2 38.9 39.0 38.6 37.8 36.7 35.6 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 29.3 27.8 27.3 26.7 27.7 29.6 31.1 31.6 31.3 30.5 29.3 27.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 14 13 10 8 7 4 3 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 31. 36. 40. 41. 42. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 11/08/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 11/08/07 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING