* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 11/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 42 46 46 44 41 38 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 30 31 35 35 33 30 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 31 32 31 28 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 7 2 9 8 14 14 23 23 26 30 31 SHEAR DIR 188 212 232 223 169 127 130 150 158 184 188 200 221 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.8 27.3 26.2 27.1 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 157 159 152 148 150 129 116 125 144 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 152 155 159 161 154 151 153 128 113 122 141 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 6 5 6 4 6 4 8 7 10 700-500 MB RH 78 72 75 70 73 73 71 69 66 59 51 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 65 66 67 63 56 25 11 -21 -26 -27 -49 200 MB DIV 110 113 104 79 78 59 0 -11 10 2 6 -18 -28 LAND (KM) 168 163 189 250 166 -84 3 105 193 343 315 319 322 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.3 80.1 81.2 82.2 84.5 87.1 89.9 92.7 95.1 97.3 99.3 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 59 73 77 77 63 9999 8 5 1 0 11 15 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7. -11. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 26. 27. 25. 23. 20. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 26. 26. 24. 21. 18. 14. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY