* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 11/11/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 41 44 46 43 41 39 38 37
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 29 28 33 36 37 35 33 31 29 28
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 28 27 32 34 36 34 33 31 29 28
SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 12 13 7 14 18 23 20 22 25 28 22
SHEAR DIR 142 144 166 169 150 142 162 174 179 181 197 217 206
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.8 26.8 26.3 27.9 28.8 28.7 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 154 146 148 150 123 118 136 149 147 139
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 160 156 147 150 153 121 116 135 149 145 134
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.8 -56.1 -56.9
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 6 4 6 4 8 6 10 8
700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 64 63 68 67 63 56 50 43 39 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 75 65 67 64 58 47 15 -12 -38 -39 -41 -60 -57
200 MB DIV 72 60 42 46 37 -13 0 10 -8 3 -12 -17 -10
LAND (KM) 223 173 87 -37 -85 79 159 235 323 324 365 392 377
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.4 15.3
LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.1 83.0 84.2 85.3 87.8 90.6 93.3 95.9 98.4 100.8 103.1 105.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 79 67 63 9999 9999 2 9 0 0 15 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. 14.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY