* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 11/11/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 37 39 39 36 34 32 30 29
V (KT) LAND 25 28 27 27 31 33 35 35 32 30 28 26 25
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 26 26 30 33 34 33 31 28 26 24 22
SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 12 8 13 19 22 25 25 19 31 32 24
SHEAR DIR 114 147 162 131 133 147 157 180 197 196 204 217 216
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.4 28.7 27.6 26.4 27.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 153 144 144 149 134 120 133 144 140 135 134
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 162 156 147 147 155 137 120 135 147 141 134 130
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 5 6 5 7 8 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 64 66 67 63 60 53 49 47 40 36
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 71 63 58 37 3 -30 -28 -31 -48 -62 -73
200 MB DIV 42 46 47 27 -1 -6 17 5 12 18 -18 -3 -8
LAND (KM) 170 79 -21 -49 60 228 335 455 481 560 630 705 778
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 81.8 82.9 84.0 85.4 86.7 89.7 92.9 96.1 99.1 102.0 104.9 107.7 109.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 10
HEAT CONTENT 74 64 9999 9999 4 5 0 1 12 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 11/11/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY