* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 11/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 29 28 24 21 22 20 V (KT) LAND 20 19 22 24 27 31 32 33 31 28 25 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 22 24 27 28 27 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 13 17 16 19 21 24 29 34 34 29 28 SHEAR DIR 132 118 128 146 157 174 199 201 212 218 228 225 228 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.3 29.0 27.0 25.0 27.1 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 142 139 142 153 126 107 127 151 150 144 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 143 140 144 157 126 105 127 154 149 138 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -55.8 -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 6 4 7 7 9 8 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 75 76 72 68 60 60 48 47 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 62 64 51 19 -16 -29 -36 -49 -66 -69 -57 200 MB DIV 57 48 20 19 20 28 19 11 11 -41 -17 21 -9 LAND (KM) 109 -5 -94 -6 80 183 291 400 427 495 549 590 652 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.9 85.1 86.4 87.7 90.5 93.3 96.2 99.1 101.9 104.4 106.1 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 63 46 9999 10 2 10 0 1 13 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -18. -24. -27. -30. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 3. 3. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 1. 2. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 11/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 11/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY