* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL942007 12/09/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 38 38 36 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 38 38 36 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 35 34 30 27 23 18 24 21 19 17
SHEAR (KTS) 38 45 49 42 38 48 40 40 33 31 32 25 26
SHEAR DIR 236 234 247 255 260 257 278 289 317 319 329 301 293
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 129 130 131 133 135 136 136 134 134 135 135
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 122 122 123 126 129 131 130 127 125 125 123
200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -56.2 -55.5 -54.7 -53.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 42 44 46 50 49 49 49 52 49 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 43 40 35 39 45 33 41 21 12 7 -10
200 MB DIV 28 16 25 35 24 15 -10 -9 -38 -85 -105 -58 -40
LAND (KM) 855 734 614 487 364 166 122 11 -8 22 119 171 122
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.8 59.9 61.2 62.4 64.9 68.0 71.3 74.6 77.6 80.3 82.5 84.4
STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 15 14 11 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 33 34 34 35 37 40 50 47 42 13 59 55 50
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. -45.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 12/09/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 12/09/07 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING