* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL942007 12/10/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 25 23 24 21 21 20 20 21
SHEAR (KTS) 47 51 44 43 41 53 41 41 25 24 15 9 5
SHEAR DIR 236 246 253 253 251 260 273 292 311 325 345 338 81
SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 132 134 136 140 146 145 146 140 136 135
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 126 128 131 137 143 141 141 135 131 130
200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.3 -56.3 -55.6 -55.3 -54.3 -53.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 5 8
700-500 MB RH 38 37 42 40 41 48 47 47 48 53 55 56 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 3
850 MB ENV VOR 44 35 34 34 37 51 55 66 64 57 47 39 26
200 MB DIV 19 20 21 -12 7 -8 -53 -29 -67 -67 -89 -57 -40
LAND (KM) 691 544 397 261 137 53 -8 7 -12 168 262 90 59
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 19.1 19.1 18.8 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.7 16.4
LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.6 62.0 63.4 64.7 67.6 71.0 74.2 77.1 79.8 82.3 84.8 87.3
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 15 13 12 12 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 33 34 37 41 43 49 64 78 76 82 59 45 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -17. -26. -37. -42. -46. -45. -41. -38.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -6. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -26. -29. -28. -24. -22.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -26. -29. -28. -24. -22.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING