* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL942007 12/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 27 32 29 31 23 26 23 22 21 SHEAR (KTS) 51 41 38 50 55 46 48 36 33 26 21 14 16 SHEAR DIR 248 255 253 254 263 266 287 304 314 318 292 274 275 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 133 134 135 141 142 140 143 141 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 124 126 127 130 136 136 133 135 134 129 125 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.7 -55.6 -54.8 -54.6 -53.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 42 44 42 45 48 46 49 48 52 55 58 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 33 38 42 40 48 50 55 35 30 6 0 200 MB DIV 32 -11 -3 2 -38 -42 -19 -65 -56 -90 -57 -61 -66 LAND (KM) 401 279 159 38 0 0 -2 42 -10 148 338 168 99 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.9 17.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 63.1 64.2 65.4 66.6 69.4 72.2 74.9 77.4 79.7 81.9 84.0 86.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 44 45 45 55 72 73 74 81 62 46 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -25. -36. -42. -48. -48. -46. -45. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -25. -30. -36. -35. -33. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -25. -30. -36. -35. -33. -32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING