* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL942007 12/10/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 33 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 33 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 48 55 42 37 29 23 19 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 37 45 47 40 53 45 37 36 21 28 22 20 SHEAR DIR 243 247 254 269 275 275 303 309 322 286 288 275 285 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 134 135 138 142 140 141 141 140 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 127 128 130 132 136 133 134 133 133 127 126 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -53.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 47 50 47 50 49 57 58 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 39 39 47 41 52 51 48 29 19 -4 -11 200 MB DIV -1 11 0 -34 -41 -23 -55 -56 -93 -73 -63 -57 -38 LAND (KM) 263 137 24 0 0 -24 4 41 81 296 252 183 53 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 17.9 17.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 64.4 65.6 67.0 68.3 71.2 74.0 76.5 79.0 81.1 83.3 85.6 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 42 43 41 9999 64 66 77 75 53 51 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -26. -35. -42. -45. -47. -46. -45. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -18. -26. -34. -39. -40. -41. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -18. -26. -34. -39. -40. -41. -41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 12/10/07 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING