* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* OLGA AL172007 12/11/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 30 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 32 29 27 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 33 37 39 34 38 52 35 38 29 35 37 32 32
SHEAR DIR 244 251 272 275 266 290 311 313 316 295 296 294 280
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 135 139 138 136 135 136 135 134 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 128 129 129 133 131 128 125 123 123 120 116
200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.5 -53.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 8
700-500 MB RH 42 45 49 50 50 50 54 55 61 59 54 53 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 48 53 49 47 46 30 25 15 -7 -31 -39
200 MB DIV 27 29 -5 -27 -41 -25 -64 -38 -75 -63 -53 -33 -15
LAND (KM) 116 6 11 4 -38 -10 22 43 175 202 188 158 93
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.4 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.9 67.2 68.6 69.9 72.7 75.4 78.1 80.4 82.1 83.6 85.1 85.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 9 7 7 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 43 43 44 39 9999 56 53 54 63 60 57 49 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -28. -34. -38. -42. -43. -45.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -40. -43. -45.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -40. -43. -45.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING