* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* OLGA AL172007 12/11/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 37 30 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 41 36 33 35 29 26 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 40 36 33 37 33 28 26 25 24 26 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 39 43 39 38 43 43 33 20 17 17 14 15 N/A
SHEAR DIR 251 268 268 262 269 296 295 319 251 287 270 228 N/A
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 26.9 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 139 141 143 144 142 139 134 131 122 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 131 135 138 140 141 137 133 127 121 111 N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -54.7 -54.0 -53.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 6 7 N/A
700-500 MB RH 44 48 48 48 49 47 47 50 51 46 43 45 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 5 4 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 53 61 68 75 74 59 29 5 -16 8 N/A
200 MB DIV 26 6 -8 -34 -21 -59 -87 -93 -56 -54 -61 -42 N/A
LAND (KM) 0 58 -22 -3 0 74 49 330 245 118 -39 -86 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.8 69.2 70.8 72.3 75.5 78.5 81.4 84.0 86.5 88.4 89.9 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 43 43 9999 59 69 72 82 72 48 53 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -25. -30. -30. -32. -31. -29. -30.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -24. -27. -29. -28. -29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -24. -27. -29. -28. -29.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 06 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING