* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 34 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 33 34 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 34 32 29 31 27 25 24 24 25 26 SHEAR (KTS) 44 42 39 46 48 35 29 17 26 16 15 9 13 SHEAR DIR 269 269 257 266 282 289 304 285 284 287 301 273 270 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 142 144 143 143 138 137 134 133 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 136 140 142 140 138 127 125 119 117 122 125 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.2 -53.2 -52.5 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 7 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 47 50 48 48 47 46 48 51 53 58 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 14 13 13 11 10 8 8 7 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 57 63 70 66 57 35 21 10 -26 -8 7 200 MB DIV 5 -21 -37 -25 -27 -98 -76 -82 -53 -76 -43 -35 -55 LAND (KM) 42 22 17 1 7 -21 253 316 259 257 268 296 339 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.2 70.8 72.5 74.2 77.4 80.7 82.6 83.8 84.7 84.7 84.3 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 16 12 7 5 2 1 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 61 70 72 9999 75 58 50 50 50 50 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -25. -29. -32. -34. -33. -30. -28. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -32. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -32. -31. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING