* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 35 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 34 35 33 28 24 21 19 18 18 19 20 SHEAR (KTS) 38 41 51 49 39 36 27 25 19 17 11 14 12 SHEAR DIR 275 263 264 277 290 298 309 260 275 266 297 208 204 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 140 143 143 143 142 139 135 131 127 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 134 138 142 141 138 136 130 124 118 112 117 121 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.4 -53.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 50 51 47 46 45 46 51 51 52 51 51 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 11 10 9 9 7 6 3 2 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 64 62 62 64 55 15 8 -10 -8 13 17 200 MB DIV -28 -41 -26 -37 -49 -81 -70 -44 -60 -64 -35 -2 -9 LAND (KM) -6 -16 -39 12 80 33 319 309 252 130 90 110 216 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.1 18.1 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 70.0 71.6 73.4 75.2 78.3 81.3 83.5 85.2 86.4 86.8 86.6 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 17 16 14 12 10 7 4 0 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 54 9999 67 64 68 74 53 49 53 49 51 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -8. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. -31. -29. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -36. -36. -31. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -36. -36. -31. -32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/11/07 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING