* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/12/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 49 47 44 36 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 41 38 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 36 39 37 32 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 48 50 44 40 44 27 37 36 38 27 30 26 SHEAR DIR 259 265 285 297 297 318 302 285 293 307 290 278 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 140 142 141 139 137 135 135 134 132 132 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 135 138 137 132 126 121 119 117 115 116 114 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 6 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 47 44 46 47 44 47 55 58 60 56 59 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 45 49 51 54 53 46 12 -5 -46 -41 -41 9 200 MB DIV -35 -8 -7 -41 -91 -91 -100 -56 -78 -68 -24 -3 18 LAND (KM) -30 -68 1 47 86 153 266 263 240 198 167 153 132 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 71.3 72.7 74.4 76.0 79.1 81.3 82.4 83.1 83.6 83.6 83.3 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 12 8 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 62 58 62 67 67 62 60 58 56 57 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -12. -16. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. -45. -44. -44. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -21. -28. -36. -44. -48. -51. -52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -21. -28. -36. -44. -48. -51. -52. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING