* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/12/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 41 38 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 39 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 37 33 30 28 26 25 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 47 46 38 35 38 31 25 25 23 17 23 21 24 SHEAR DIR 266 280 288 288 295 317 280 283 268 268 246 249 228 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 138 137 136 137 135 137 137 135 131 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 131 127 125 123 125 125 122 117 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 44 46 54 56 59 61 52 54 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 49 43 35 50 20 7 -8 -13 -17 -32 -57 200 MB DIV -5 -3 -30 -60 -81 -83 -62 -66 -62 -26 -21 -12 -14 LAND (KM) -73 37 45 27 0 193 220 260 244 201 88 6 -22 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 73.2 74.7 76.2 77.6 79.6 80.8 82.3 84.1 85.5 86.6 87.4 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 11 8 7 8 8 6 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 55 51 55 49 69 65 63 59 51 51 43 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -30. -30. -30. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -24. -30. -35. -37. -39. -42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -24. -30. -35. -37. -39. -42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING