* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 26 24 22 21 19 17 16 18 SHEAR (KTS) 47 37 34 38 35 23 29 26 31 27 32 39 52 SHEAR DIR 282 292 297 297 306 295 261 254 278 256 253 244 263 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 138 138 138 137 134 132 130 129 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 132 130 128 127 125 119 116 114 112 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 4 5 4 6 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 45 51 59 57 63 57 55 53 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 49 44 47 54 20 18 -8 -20 -23 -28 -24 200 MB DIV -15 -35 -71 -72 -77 -70 -54 -66 -32 -19 -40 -20 -25 LAND (KM) 55 70 55 90 198 255 226 177 158 132 75 11 -11 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 75.8 77.3 78.5 79.6 81.3 83.4 84.5 85.1 85.5 85.3 84.8 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 11 9 9 8 4 3 3 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 60 59 60 70 66 59 52 50 49 48 50 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -26. -30. -33. -36. -42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -26. -30. -33. -36. -42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -54.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING