* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 25 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 25 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 23 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 33 38 40 27 24 26 34 40 43 51 59 67 SHEAR DIR 289 288 286 304 303 244 246 244 259 236 250 249 267 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 139 139 138 133 128 123 123 127 128 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 135 132 130 126 120 113 107 107 112 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 3 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 46 47 44 46 47 48 47 41 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 42 40 46 24 4 -10 -9 0 -5 -11 -28 200 MB DIV -42 -67 -75 -88 -64 -39 -58 -53 -6 -22 -5 -8 16 LAND (KM) 89 66 160 269 277 191 142 41 11 66 156 107 95 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.9 79.4 80.7 82.0 83.9 85.6 86.5 87.0 87.0 86.2 84.9 82.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 11 9 7 4 3 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 70 68 66 57 49 39 33 29 41 39 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -28. -34. -40. -47. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -23. -30. -35. -40. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -23. -30. -35. -40. -46. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -67.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/12/07 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING