* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* OLGA AL172007 12/13/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 39 41 42 32 20 22 27 32 35 45 57 63 75
SHEAR DIR 287 284 299 306 287 267 243 258 247 237 229 250 252
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.8 25.8 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 139 137 134 129 128 127 121 112 111
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 133 130 128 125 120 114 112 113 108 101 100
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 0 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 42 42 46 46 47 45 49 52 59 58 47 33 29
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 3 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 48 51 52 19 2 -20 -16 35 35 14 -8
200 MB DIV -72 -61 -65 -73 -72 -40 -57 -53 -39 -31 -4 9 -1
LAND (KM) 58 90 214 300 302 206 147 112 135 166 181 113 46
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.1 26.2
LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.7 80.1 81.2 82.2 83.7 85.1 85.8 86.0 85.6 84.2 82.4 79.7
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 9 11 14
HEAT CONTENT 63 67 70 70 66 58 50 45 43 40 16 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -26. -32. -39. -47.
PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -21. -27. -32. -37. -40. -47.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -21. -27. -32. -37. -40. -47.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -68.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING