* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 23 25 21 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 44 37 25 23 21 17 21 32 42 49 64 66 63 SHEAR DIR 296 302 292 277 266 246 252 240 237 252 269 271 272 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.6 27.3 25.7 25.3 24.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 139 136 129 119 131 117 115 109 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 128 130 127 119 109 127 117 115 108 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 5 4 6 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 47 50 50 50 50 56 56 56 54 40 32 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 42 38 28 19 -3 -5 26 25 -52 -66 -77 200 MB DIV -61 -81 -69 -44 -44 -41 -62 -26 -48 -14 12 29 14 LAND (KM) 199 276 293 322 297 197 -8 -42 191 -7 615 1013 1491 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.6 21.1 23.1 25.2 26.7 28.4 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 80.8 81.7 82.6 83.5 85.6 87.5 88.4 86.3 81.0 73.9 66.9 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 20 29 33 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 68 63 60 51 41 9999 41 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -42. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -18. -25. -32. -37. -42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -18. -25. -32. -37. -42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -59.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING