* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * OLGA AL172007 12/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 29 27 25 24 19 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 31 32 24 23 30 36 40 55 68 61 58 49 SHEAR DIR 287 278 275 276 263 253 263 236 252 263 246 252 249 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.2 25.1 23.4 21.3 18.1 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 137 132 126 130 114 103 93 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 126 126 125 120 115 127 117 103 90 80 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -54.3 -54.9 -56.0 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 6 5 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 52 50 52 53 59 55 55 43 30 29 35 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 32 30 23 21 2 -17 34 22 10 -1 -61 -15 200 MB DIV -63 -77 -62 -55 -34 -57 -27 -27 -2 42 47 68 52 LAND (KM) 266 273 269 232 222 91 20 224 50 730 1031 762 946 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 20.4 21.7 24.1 27.1 30.5 35.1 40.3 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.1 82.9 83.8 84.6 86.2 87.1 85.5 79.6 70.6 60.4 49.7 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 8 9 22 37 46 49 45 39 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 62 59 54 46 27 35 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -14. -21. -30. -33. -34. -36. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -15. -23. -33. -35. -36. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -15. -23. -33. -35. -36. -37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -58.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172007 OLGA 12/13/07 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING