* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL952007 12/29/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 39 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 39 38 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 37 36 35 36 36 33 27 21 17
SHEAR (KTS) 20 27 41 49 44 31 21 25 51 44 34 35 53
SHEAR DIR 286 267 255 251 255 262 275 1 3 339 308 256 260
SST (C) 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 89 92 93 98 104 110 115 119 120 117 116
ADJ. POT. INT. 79 76 77 80 82 88 96 104 109 114 112 106 103
200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.4 -56.7 -56.3 -55.6 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6
700-500 MB RH 46 42 40 37 31 29 27 25 25 21 20 21 29
GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 18 15 13 9 6 1 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 51 46 22 19 9 0 -2 -9 -34 -73 -70
200 MB DIV 2 0 14 29 27 -42 -12 -70 -96 -133 -89 -12 0
LAND (KM) 2193 2189 2186 2211 2238 2360 2486 2179 1776 1379 1045 837 770
LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.0 23.7 22.3 20.8 20.0 20.3 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 37.7 37.7 37.6 38.0 38.3 39.7 42.1 45.5 49.2 52.8 55.9 58.0 58.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 5 6 10 15 18 18 17 12 7 4
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -3. 1. 5. 7. 8. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -24. -28. -30. -37.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 24. 22. 21.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -12. -24. -33. -37. -44.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -13. -26. -35. -39. -47.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 12/29/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 12/29/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY