* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952007 12/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 50 50 50 49 34 43 46 52 48 30 32 35 46 SHEAR DIR 252 256 257 266 294 300 322 354 345 330 273 266 268 SST (C) 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.6 24.2 25.0 25.5 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 90 89 90 93 95 101 108 113 117 116 111 107 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 79 82 85 93 102 107 111 106 99 96 97 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.8 -56.5 -57.7 -58.0 -56.1 -55.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 38 33 32 29 31 32 31 26 24 21 29 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 17 14 11 7 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 42 31 19 11 0 -3 0 -5 -38 -56 -32 -34 200 MB DIV 19 33 -23 -68 -31 -5 -41 -98 -116 -39 -4 -30 -31 LAND (KM) 1956 1968 1980 2034 2089 2323 2379 2005 1575 1268 1149 1296 1548 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.7 24.4 23.1 21.9 21.7 22.7 24.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 35.6 35.7 36.3 36.9 39.4 43.1 47.1 51.1 54.1 55.7 54.9 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 6 9 15 18 19 17 11 7 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -12. -23. -32. -38. -39. -41. -45. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -7. -19. -31. -42. -46. -50. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -20. -32. -42. -47. -51. -59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 12/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 1.5 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 12/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY