* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TESTRUN CP892008 01/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 99 110 109 117 121 120 101 88 107 87 82 71 60 SHEAR DIR 257 256 255 249 250 258 259 239 248 252 277 285 289 SST (C) 23.9 23.6 23.2 22.5 21.9 20.7 18.7 15.6 13.3 10.8 3.3 4.8 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 98 91 86 75 70 70 70 70 70 70 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.6 -56.9 -57.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 54 56 48 52 57 63 57 62 65 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -25 1 18 1 18 6 35 45 28 56 18 28 200 MB DIV 32 27 67 61 69 44 94 127 131 61 64 18 42 LAND (KM) 1539 1649 1773 1972 2137 1529 698 20 -777 -999 -870 -175 269 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.4 17.5 18.6 19.6 21.9 25.4 29.8 34.9 39.4 42.1 42.6 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 139.6 138.1 136.1 134.0 128.7 121.5 113.0 106.0 96.9 84.8 73.2 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 18 20 22 25 33 40 41 41 45 45 40 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -10. -16. -34. -54. -75.-102.-125.-143.-156.-164. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 29. 38. 44. 48. 53. 58. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -19. -40. -58. -75. -97.-118.-134.-144.-150. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -11. -17. -37. -56. -74. -97.-117.-132.-143.-148. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP892008 TESTRUN 01/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 111.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892008 TESTRUN 01/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY