* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * INVEST AL902009 05/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 45 48 49 52 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 45 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 27 27 27 29 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 31 25 37 33 34 30 30 15 8 12 6 15 14 SHEAR DIR 290 255 247 235 210 242 228 249 280 270 212 287 302 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.9 25.4 24.3 23.9 23.9 23.4 23.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 113 111 106 104 109 101 98 97 93 93 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 103 101 95 92 96 91 87 84 81 81 78 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.7 -57.6 -56.9 -57.8 -58.2 -58.3 -58.7 -58.4 -58.0 -57.5 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 2 1 4 2 6 700-500 MB RH 62 67 69 69 75 65 55 50 57 55 56 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 32 44 54 72 60 35 7 29 3 36 11 4 200 MB DIV 66 84 50 72 131 39 47 12 25 -7 21 -9 1 LAND (KM) 92 206 320 442 490 400 262 32 -138 -169 -189 -227 -244 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.2 26.4 28.3 29.4 30.2 31.3 32.0 32.4 32.4 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.6 75.3 75.3 75.2 76.3 78.1 81.0 83.9 86.0 87.9 89.6 91.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 12 11 10 11 13 12 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 23. 24. 27. 28. 27. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY