* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 45 51 52 52 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 33 29 27 27 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 6 9 10 14 17 9 21 9 27 23 SHEAR DIR 286 276 261 258 187 193 175 186 167 205 198 222 247 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.9 22.6 19.7 17.4 15.6 13.8 11.0 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 117 115 115 113 89 78 72 69 66 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 101 100 100 97 79 71 67 65 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.3 -56.5 -57.1 -56.7 -57.3 -57.0 -57.6 -57.5 -58.2 -58.5 -59.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 3 6 2 6 0 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 62 69 67 73 69 68 62 70 67 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 77 79 65 49 55 40 38 33 -4 32 19 57 17 200 MB DIV 8 26 13 7 17 54 23 86 21 57 0 29 -8 LAND (KM) 340 275 212 151 107 -55 -263 -455 -647 -839 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.5 29.2 30.9 32.8 34.5 36.2 37.9 39.6 41.2 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.9 88.1 88.6 89.3 90.1 90.8 91.2 91.3 90.4 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 20. 26. 27. 27. 26. 27. 27. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY