* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 45 48 50 50 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 8 11 14 16 15 16 19 26 37 40 SHEAR DIR 268 253 226 205 174 188 176 213 191 241 223 245 242 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 23.8 20.3 17.8 15.5 12.8 8.5 4.3 5.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 116 114 114 97 80 72 68 66 63 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 100 99 99 85 72 67 65 63 62 N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -56.2 -56.9 -57.0 -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -58.3 -57.8 -58.4 -58.6 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 6 4 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 69 68 68 68 68 63 63 68 71 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 14 13 13 12 10 9 6 7 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 85 70 58 62 63 40 48 0 12 -19 40 10 56 200 MB DIV 44 26 13 14 38 30 68 -13 26 12 2 -7 24 LAND (KM) 296 242 200 123 22 -166 -381 -577 -757 -951 -999 -999 -855 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.3 30.2 32.2 34.1 35.8 37.4 39.2 41.0 42.6 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.4 87.4 87.6 87.7 88.0 88.6 89.2 89.5 89.3 88.5 86.7 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 18. 20. 24. 26. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. 26. 24. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY