* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 05/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 48 50 54 57 61 62 60 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 10 16 10 13 15 10 9 14 15 28 37 47 38 SHEAR DIR 207 200 180 179 168 197 179 195 214 206 229 230 252 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.3 23.9 22.1 19.5 17.5 15.8 14.0 11.2 6.6 3.8 4.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 107 96 87 77 72 69 67 64 62 61 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 92 84 77 70 67 65 64 62 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.7 -56.4 -56.6 -56.9 -56.8 -57.5 -57.7 -58.5 -58.5 -58.5 -57.6 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 4 3 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 72 72 76 73 76 71 77 70 63 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 14 13 13 13 10 9 7 8 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 47 58 59 37 37 42 0 85 91 90 52 23 41 200 MB DIV 28 38 45 25 5 65 35 96 30 88 27 18 10 LAND (KM) 66 -22 -111 -200 -292 -468 -657 -862 -999 -999 -999 -999 -942 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.2 33.0 34.6 36.2 38.0 39.7 41.4 42.6 43.2 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.7 88.9 89.3 89.6 90.5 91.5 92.0 91.7 90.7 89.1 87.2 85.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 20. 24. 27. 31. 32. 30. 26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902009 INVEST 05/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY