* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 05/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 42 45 50 51 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 42 45 50 51 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 48 46 44 43 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 11 8 3 5 7 14 13 24 25 20 15 SHEAR DIR 216 187 190 203 188 237 359 333 346 346 338 347 347 SST (C) 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.2 20.2 19.6 18.6 19.1 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 96 95 94 92 90 89 86 83 82 79 80 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 84 83 83 81 80 80 79 77 76 74 74 75 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.6 -57.6 -57.3 -57.4 -57.3 -57.5 -57.8 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 63 68 73 68 72 73 73 73 72 71 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 9 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -23 -7 -27 -27 -14 16 31 5 3 -13 -19 -38 200 MB DIV 2 41 56 15 0 16 4 19 4 -6 -4 -42 -40 LAND (KM) 526 476 395 316 228 195 371 453 500 616 677 944 1348 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.4 31.2 32.2 33.1 34.9 36.5 38.1 39.4 40.4 40.7 39.9 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.4 75.4 75.3 75.1 73.9 71.6 67.9 63.0 57.4 51.6 46.1 41.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 11 14 19 21 22 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 25. 26. 25. 22. 18. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 05/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 05/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY