* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 05/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 37 41 42 37 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 37 41 42 37 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 39 40 41 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 7 5 20 14 14 15 33 33 31 19 SHEAR DIR 323 300 334 336 299 316 316 321 316 314 329 332 305 SST (C) 22.7 22.3 21.8 21.4 20.3 17.5 13.9 10.2 7.4 7.1 16.0 17.0 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 86 85 81 75 70 68 67 66 72 74 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 78 77 76 74 70 68 67 66 65 68 69 71 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -58.0 -58.0 -58.1 -58.2 -58.1 -58.6 -58.6 -58.6 -58.4 -58.8 -59.4 -60.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 70 73 72 71 71 75 78 74 68 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 5 8 11 8 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -8 -1 13 13 -7 11 17 -10 -41 -45 -38 -17 200 MB DIV 38 41 -12 -12 24 -15 -21 -30 19 -45 -19 -50 -34 LAND (KM) 176 201 252 323 369 353 299 301 178 477 868 1228 1566 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.3 36.2 37.0 37.8 39.4 41.3 43.3 45.1 45.4 44.1 42.0 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 73.7 73.0 71.9 70.7 67.5 63.4 58.5 52.9 47.2 42.6 39.1 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 14 17 19 22 21 19 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. 0. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 17. 12. 5. 4. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 05/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 05/27/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY