* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 05/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 35 30 29 27 22 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 35 30 29 27 22 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 25 25 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 17 22 20 20 22 40 52 54 42 32 N/A SHEAR DIR 339 249 275 311 321 329 321 304 319 335 347 348 N/A SST (C) 21.4 20.5 18.9 17.1 15.3 10.2 7.0 3.8 8.7 14.8 16.4 17.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 86 82 78 74 71 68 67 66 65 68 71 73 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 75 72 69 68 66 66 N/A 64 64 66 68 72 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.7 -58.2 -58.4 -58.5 -58.6 -59.0 -58.8 -58.6 -58.3 -58.6 -58.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 70 70 68 70 73 80 78 69 60 59 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 8 8 14 18 20 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 -5 -27 -14 18 -5 -17 -54 -53 -52 -5 N/A 200 MB DIV -10 20 16 -26 -19 35 -19 -21 -36 -38 -14 -19 N/A LAND (KM) 344 381 364 382 324 258 179 273 664 911 1060 1237 1545 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 38.0 38.8 39.7 40.6 42.8 45.2 46.8 46.5 45.3 43.6 41.6 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 70.0 68.4 66.7 65.0 60.9 55.6 49.4 44.2 41.4 40.3 39.3 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 17 21 23 20 14 10 10 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 8. 4. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 5. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 5. 4. 2. -3. -7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 05/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 05/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY