* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012009 05/28/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 41 43 39 32 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 41 43 39 32 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 36 36 35 33 31 30 30 33 SHEAR (KT) 5 17 21 20 20 19 22 43 55 63 40 14 12 SHEAR DIR 249 289 311 318 313 333 314 324 326 337 305 282 208 SST (C) 21.4 20.7 19.7 18.8 17.1 16.5 11.6 7.7 9.3 13.3 10.9 9.8 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 86 83 81 78 75 74 68 66 66 69 67 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 76 74 73 70 70 66 64 65 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.3 -58.5 -58.7 -58.7 -58.6 -58.7 -58.6 -57.8 -56.6 -55.9 -56.5 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 70 73 76 78 70 58 56 59 64 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -5 -36 -32 -29 -46 -59 -47 -53 -50 -12 17 -4 200 MB DIV 34 30 -16 -21 13 -4 17 -49 -30 -47 5 6 10 LAND (KM) 429 422 433 417 406 485 345 423 677 979 1293 1421 1046 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.2 39.0 39.8 40.6 41.7 43.6 45.0 46.3 47.7 49.3 51.3 53.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 68.5 66.7 64.6 62.5 57.6 52.7 48.2 44.1 39.7 35.3 30.9 25.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 18 20 19 17 16 17 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 10. 6. 1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 9. 2. -8. -12. -15. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012009 ONE 05/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012009 ONE 05/28/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY