* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ONE AL012009 05/29/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 39 34 31 29 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 39 34 31 29 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 26 26 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 23 26 25 37 64 81 66 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 305 305 317 330 307 312 324 333 263 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 18.6 16.8 14.6 12.1 5.7 5.2 9.9 10.6 9.1 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 78 75 72 69 66 66 67 67 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 70 69 67 66 65 66 66 65 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.7 -58.9 -58.9 -59.0 -59.0 -58.5 -56.8 -54.7 -54.5 -56.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 69 71 74 62 50 38 46 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -14 -12 -20 -45 -18 -94 -82 -80 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -11 21 9 1 8 -47 -43 -65 -28 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 462 407 416 393 222 393 748 1108 1480 1150 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.4 40.3 41.4 42.4 44.7 46.7 48.6 50.5 52.3 54.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.2 65.2 63.1 60.7 58.2 53.0 47.8 42.8 37.9 32.9 27.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 20 21 22 21 20 19 18 19 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 19. 18. 16. 14. 14. 10. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 29. 33. 34. 35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 4. 1. -1. -8. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 4. 1. -1. -8. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY