* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ONE AL012009 05/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 39 37 38 42 38 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 39 37 38 42 38 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 30 28 27 26 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 21 23 19 43 63 75 34 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 308 313 337 314 309 317 332 347 226 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.8 17.1 15.3 12.1 8.7 3.9 6.6 10.5 9.3 8.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 75 72 70 67 66 66 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 70 69 68 66 N/A 65 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -59.0 -58.8 -59.0 -59.1 -58.7 -58.5 -56.9 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 74 76 71 54 35 33 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 6 4 4 6 4 3 10 17 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -9 -11 -27 -22 -60 -105 -84 -52 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 11 12 10 -5 -12 -29 -64 -60 -67 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 469 427 438 388 346 189 508 889 1287 1311 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.2 41.1 42.4 43.7 45.8 47.9 49.9 51.8 54.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 62.9 60.8 58.3 55.8 51.0 46.0 40.9 35.6 30.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 20 23 21 20 20 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. 12. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. 1. 7. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. 8. 12. 8. 2. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. 8. 12. 8. 2. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY