* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE AL012009 05/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 33 32 30 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 33 32 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 439 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -8. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012009 ONE 05/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY