* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 05/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 39 42 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 39 42 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 8 9 11 6 11 9 6 9 12 10 SHEAR DIR 273 298 307 289 262 276 282 316 321 198 199 190 167 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 152 152 151 152 153 151 148 145 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 64 59 66 67 68 63 62 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 17 8 0 -9 -10 -15 -16 -14 -18 -15 -15 200 MB DIV 104 91 97 104 82 107 89 86 75 36 35 40 39 LAND (KM) 860 842 828 819 812 848 909 954 1023 1113 1208 1291 1398 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.7 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.7 98.4 99.1 99.8 101.4 103.0 104.7 106.7 108.8 110.9 113.0 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 32 30 29 30 31 28 22 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 05/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 05/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED