* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 05/31/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 30 31 32 35 38 37 36 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 30 31 32 35 38 37 36 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 14 14 18 16 7 6 8 13 10 9 SHEAR DIR 288 259 245 253 272 258 287 307 186 208 206 207 162 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 154 153 153 153 152 147 143 140 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 64 66 67 66 69 64 64 60 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 -3 -2 -10 -18 -20 -16 -6 -8 -5 -9 -18 200 MB DIV 108 82 84 85 79 42 38 8 20 24 53 41 24 LAND (KM) 736 721 709 704 707 748 793 840 903 983 1050 1142 1180 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.7 98.5 99.4 100.2 101.9 103.6 105.5 107.6 109.6 111.5 113.1 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 37 36 33 38 40 36 33 25 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 10. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY