* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 05/31/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 39 40 39 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 39 40 39 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 25 27 28 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 11 13 17 11 3 3 6 7 7 14 SHEAR DIR 240 263 293 293 290 306 1 324 280 300 244 212 207 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 152 152 152 152 151 146 143 138 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 65 68 67 69 67 67 64 62 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -14 -17 -16 -15 -13 -9 -14 -3 -5 -22 -36 200 MB DIV 85 63 56 44 10 16 6 0 26 18 47 43 16 LAND (KM) 775 773 775 793 816 861 922 977 1058 1121 1195 1252 1246 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.6 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.3 100.0 100.8 101.6 103.3 105.1 107.0 109.0 111.0 112.8 114.8 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 36 32 32 31 32 32 32 26 23 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 05/31/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY