* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 06/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 36 37 37 36 40 34 30 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 36 37 37 36 40 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 39 39 39 40 42 43 45 48 SHEAR (KT) 14 7 2 4 6 14 21 27 29 23 24 23 16 SHEAR DIR 197 199 172 344 326 329 315 310 300 295 284 266 242 SST (C) 16.0 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.4 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 68 67 66 64 66 68 68 67 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 65 65 64 63 62 60 63 65 65 63 61 62 64 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 62 61 56 58 56 59 60 61 68 68 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 17 16 14 11 11 11 11 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 169 160 161 153 150 138 112 103 91 136 167 172 173 200 MB DIV 25 51 24 34 14 -1 -1 20 20 6 6 -10 12 LAND (KM) 1272 1242 1221 1231 1246 1272 1184 970 686 479 423 365 184 LAT (DEG N) 40.8 41.8 42.8 43.5 44.2 44.7 44.6 44.6 44.8 45.4 46.1 45.9 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.8 23.7 21.0 17.3 14.1 12.3 11.5 9.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 5 2 7 11 13 9 5 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -12. -10. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 5. -1. -5. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 06/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)