* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 30 30 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 30 30 30 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 3 4 6 11 13 6 6 15 15 17 12 SHEAR DIR 216 237 251 252 263 224 222 226 213 164 148 158 174 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 147 145 146 146 145 140 133 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 60 63 65 61 66 69 67 65 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -4 -9 -11 -5 -4 6 8 23 26 28 27 200 MB DIV 129 104 46 9 -18 -2 33 45 48 113 112 110 56 LAND (KM) 1517 1524 1534 1546 1559 1601 1671 1762 1854 1909 1956 1982 1987 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 120.0 121.2 122.6 124.2 125.5 126.5 127.1 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 44 41 39 38 35 36 28 17 11 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -18. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY