* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 46 47 44 38 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 46 47 44 38 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 37 36 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 5 2 9 14 17 26 29 27 25 17 SHEAR DIR 61 72 73 100 125 249 235 211 211 218 223 228 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.8 25.6 24.4 23.3 22.4 21.6 20.8 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 144 140 130 118 106 94 84 76 68 60 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 63 64 61 58 49 45 38 35 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -37 -46 -52 -49 -33 -22 -8 -18 -37 -41 -40 200 MB DIV 62 45 23 40 40 35 45 4 20 3 -1 -17 -11 LAND (KM) 1507 1510 1519 1518 1522 1480 1413 1331 1239 1143 1069 958 766 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.6 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.5 119.2 119.9 120.5 121.4 122.0 122.4 122.5 122.6 122.9 122.6 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 54 50 46 38 26 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 22. 19. 13. 4. -4. -10. -16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY