* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 31 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 32 31 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 27 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 4 1 16 25 33 32 35 32 27 29 SHEAR DIR 67 83 94 55 213 211 198 199 197 201 218 220 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 25.7 24.6 23.5 22.5 21.0 19.7 18.0 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 138 133 119 108 97 86 70 61 63 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 66 65 59 54 45 39 33 32 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -52 -59 -59 -54 -58 -43 -27 -29 -44 -52 -20 17 200 MB DIV 34 32 26 14 4 21 9 11 -9 -10 -34 16 9 LAND (KM) 1490 1482 1480 1453 1418 1313 1175 1038 922 786 610 328 -10 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.9 17.4 19.0 20.5 22.1 23.5 25.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.9 119.6 120.0 120.3 120.6 120.4 120.2 120.0 119.7 118.8 116.5 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 36 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 0. -9. -18. -27. -32. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY