* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 7 16 22 29 35 31 32 26 27 25 SHEAR DIR 92 132 136 181 192 200 190 199 208 220 241 258 259 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.7 24.7 23.7 22.2 20.3 18.1 22.8 28.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 132 126 119 109 99 84 65 62 92 147 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 62 58 49 43 35 34 28 31 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 5 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -59 -60 -62 -66 -57 -46 -23 -32 -31 -4 45 39 200 MB DIV 30 29 26 19 12 21 9 -6 -10 -7 22 12 36 LAND (KM) 1402 1366 1336 1269 1205 1042 869 671 454 204 -39 -115 -453 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.8 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.5 26.0 27.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.0 119.4 119.5 119.5 119.0 118.3 117.4 116.2 114.3 111.8 109.0 106.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 42 30 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -17. -26. -35. -39. -36. -33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY