* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 06/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 15 19 23 30 33 33 33 29 30 38 SHEAR DIR 100 121 177 193 207 202 202 214 218 243 259 262 279 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.0 22.3 20.0 17.8 26.8 25.8 22.7 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 125 119 113 102 85 62 63 134 124 91 63 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.0 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 1 7 700-500 MB RH 67 62 63 61 54 49 41 33 32 31 33 33 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -62 -66 -66 -58 -48 -24 -25 -18 39 45 55 -9 200 MB DIV 40 41 22 12 25 18 27 13 5 5 4 10 -14 LAND (KM) 1340 1290 1234 1143 1054 879 678 434 149 39 -317 -663 -849 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 19.0 20.9 23.0 25.4 27.5 29.6 31.7 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 118.9 119.1 119.0 118.8 118.1 117.4 116.1 113.9 111.0 107.9 105.2 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 14 16 17 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. 8. 12. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -20. -30. -34. -33. -33. -37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 06/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 06/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY