* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP892009 06/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 43 48 54 50 52 34 16 14 22 22 32 27 14 SHEAR DIR 284 273 267 259 249 244 325 1 335 296 330 30 42 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 25.6 24.7 23.9 23.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 114 117 119 120 122 125 127 121 111 101 95 93 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.9 -55.8 -56.3 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 15 17 18 19 20 24 26 30 34 39 40 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -38 -39 -41 -37 -65 -100 -103 -90 -89 -95 -109 -98 200 MB DIV -49 -26 9 16 6 -4 -33 -7 6 5 -75 -55 -49 LAND (KM) 723 570 419 271 156 133 156 459 806 1116 1354 1531 1682 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.2 20.6 22.2 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 149.4 150.8 152.3 153.8 156.8 159.8 163.3 166.8 169.8 172.1 173.8 175.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 15 13 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -14. -20. -24. -26. -29. -35. -38. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP892009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY