* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 40 42 39 34 29 26 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 40 42 39 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 36 35 32 28 22 21 23 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 8 5 7 12 20 24 29 32 34 38 SHEAR DIR 26 11 21 10 303 262 218 214 212 202 208 191 208 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.6 27.8 26.6 24.7 22.9 24.4 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 160 158 150 141 128 109 91 107 148 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 5 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 64 67 62 61 56 53 44 43 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 4 8 2 10 11 34 25 9 32 31 41 200 MB DIV -7 9 29 45 44 52 31 40 20 4 23 28 -3 LAND (KM) 439 454 479 493 514 584 580 461 294 127 3 42 -110 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.9 17.8 19.1 20.7 22.5 24.6 26.7 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.2 109.9 111.2 111.8 111.6 111.2 110.8 110.3 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 7 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 47 37 32 14 4 0 0 0 0 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 20. 24. 25. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 15. 17. 14. 9. 4. 1. -2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED