* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP862009 06/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 52 50 49 47 26 8 11 15 25 31 23 20 SHEAR DIR 278 273 267 253 247 245 332 333 321 307 356 35 31 SST (C) 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.1 24.1 23.4 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 116 118 119 120 122 125 125 115 104 95 93 90 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 16 16 17 18 20 24 27 30 35 38 41 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -40 -39 -36 -33 -76 -104 -110 -98 -88 -105 -118 -119 200 MB DIV -34 0 7 11 -4 -8 -29 13 15 9 -53 -52 -44 LAND (KM) 681 518 359 237 165 144 209 518 855 1113 1280 1410 1564 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.7 24.0 25.0 26.0 26.9 27.6 27.7 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.9 151.4 152.9 154.3 157.1 160.2 163.7 167.0 169.4 170.9 172.3 173.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 10 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -27. -34. -40. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP862009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP862009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY