* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP892009 06/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 49 49 49 47 24 2 4 8 14 26 30 29 SHEAR DIR 284 275 269 254 248 235 347 17 348 295 336 8 21 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 24.9 23.8 22.9 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 115 117 118 120 121 122 123 113 100 89 86 79 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -56.1 -56.7 -56.5 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 14 14 15 17 19 22 25 30 33 39 45 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -46 -44 -39 -36 -77 -102 -109 -106 -91 -85 -113 -129 200 MB DIV -48 0 11 3 -9 -30 -38 -10 18 21 17 -57 -22 LAND (KM) 680 529 382 263 196 181 223 495 812 1063 1217 1309 1430 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.9 24.2 25.3 26.4 27.4 28.3 28.6 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.8 151.2 152.7 154.1 156.8 159.8 163.1 166.2 168.5 169.7 170.6 171.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 15 15 15 16 15 13 9 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -18. -17. -21. -28. -35. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP892009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 43.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY