* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 41 42 41 36 32 30 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 41 42 41 36 32 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 26 23 20 22 SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 4 6 6 11 18 19 25 22 28 26 SHEAR DIR 8 5 10 290 301 260 208 211 202 202 201 196 207 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.4 25.2 23.9 23.7 24.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 159 155 147 139 126 113 100 98 106 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 68 68 65 66 58 52 51 46 43 40 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 7 0 7 20 43 52 45 51 30 38 17 200 MB DIV 22 33 41 53 50 60 57 23 12 11 46 -1 17 LAND (KM) 489 504 526 537 568 630 566 425 296 156 40 0 20 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.1 24.2 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.3 107.2 108.1 109.0 110.5 111.5 111.4 111.0 110.8 110.6 110.6 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 56 43 41 12 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 20. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 16. 17. 16. 11. 7. 5. 0. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY